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Winter 2008
"I think I think, therefore I am, I think
A recent link in Yahoo read: "Millions of Young Abusing Cough Medicine" That’s an attention grabber. If you’re a parent you might be thinking, "Oh no, one more thing to worry about." If you’re in the pharmaceuticals industry you may be thinking, "Here comes more bad news." Whether you’re a parent, or a member of the pharmaceuticals industry, or both, it’s legitimate to consider how concerned you should be.
This newsletter builds on the prior issue and continues to examine thinking patterns and how to ferret out critical information. We’ve all found ourselves in situations where the argument sounded good when we first heard it. More importantly, did we ask the critical questions to help us determine whether what sounded good (or bad) initially really was? The article on young people abusing cough medicine serves as an example as we formulate analytical questions to get to the heart of the important information.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) By Will Dunham
"About 3.1 million Americans ages 12 to 25 -- about 5 percent of that age group -- have at some time used an over-the-counter cough and cold medication to get high, a U.S. government survey to be released on Thursday said."
- "At some time" When? How often? How high? The level of concern varies greatly. If the answer is "once for the heck of it and I just fell asleep" then neither parent nor pharma have to be too concerned. If the answer is "every week and I saw buildings melt." Then there is cause for concern.
"The survey tells me that parents need to be very concerned about the over-the-counter medicines that they have in their medicine cabinet," Dr. H. Westley Clark, director of SAMHSA's Center for Substance Abuse Treatment, said in a telephone interview."
- Dr. Clark says parents should be "very concerned." Since the article says about 5% of 12 to 25 year olds get high from OTCs, it means that 95% do NOT use OTC medicines to get high. So should all parents be "very concerned" when it’s not statistically likely that your child is abusing OTCs?
"Adolescents and young adults are thought to have the highest rates of abuse of such medications, the officials said. Nearly 1 million -- or 1.7 percent of them -- had done so in the past year, according to the survey."
- "Adolescents and young adults are thought to have the highest rates of abuse" as compared to whom? The younger children in the study? The 21-25 year old adults in the study?
- Notice that the article initially stated that 5% of 12 to 25 year olds abused OTC cough and cold medicines and now that same article is saying that only 1.7% have done so in the past year. That means that 3.3% of that age group, or over 2 million kids, have not gotten high from OTCs in over 12 months. In other words, over half of the kids who tried OTCs stopped on their own.
"Overall, the level of abuse of these drugs is comparable to levels of use of LSD, methamphetamine or the drug ecstasy in this age group, the agency said."
- Yikes! That statement will cause parents and pharma reps to lose sleep—unless you notice that it says "level of abuse" is comparable to "levels of use." Notice when you read carefully that "levels," here, probably refers to percentages, not how high the kids got. Also notice that the levels of OCT abuse are comparable to LSD, meth, OR ecstasy, not all three combined.
Clearly, if your child is among the 1.7% of ages 12-25 who are abusing cough medicine, this year, you should be concerned. However, when being confronted with information, ask the key questions before stressing out!
Think and Blink: The Art of Analytical Thinking
Ever walk away from a meeting knowing something didn’t quite add up but you couldn’t put your finger on the issue? Learn to recognize gaps in logic, numbers that don’t add up and distractors designed to keep your attention away from flaws. Develop the skill to ask critical questions providing insights worthy of Holmes and Watson. Most importantly, learn how to structure your responses to present them confidently and competently
All Novak and Associates clients booking this exciting new one day course by February 14th will receive a 10% discount. Course may be booked now for presentation at your organization later in the year!
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